Wolf Tracking

When he’s not busy giving away piles of money, Bill Gates likes to pop his head into the technology press once in a while to make a few predictions and remind everyone that there’s someone out there even more loaded than Warren Buffet. The latest instance came at this week’s Strategic Account Summit, a gathering of Microsoft’s advertising partners.

In his keynote speech, Gates outlined a future in which digital media pervades every aspect of our lives - with music, video, news, phone calls and presumably eternal bliss being delivered to everyone through an all-in-one wireless device.

All this digital excitement won’t leave room for the printing press, Gates claims - all reading will be conducted “completely online” in the future, supported by targeted advertising. Sounds like a hoot - pretty soon we’ll be wondering how people ever read George Orwell’s 1984 without the iconic Apple ad to keep them company! Hey kids, this Civil War chapter in your history book is brought to you by Cap’n Crunch!

It’s no accident that the Strategic Account Summit was deemed worthy of an appearance by Microsoft’s patriarch. As Windows Live matures and Microsoft customers get more of their services for free on the Web instead of buying expensive software, advertisers will be responsible for keeping Microsoft’s $50 billion revenue stream from disappearing. That’s why Google is giving Steve Ballmer sleepless nights - in the world of online advertising, Google is Bill Clinton and MSN is Roger Clinton. Even adding Yahoo! to their stable wouldn’t change that fact.

So before you start throwing away your book collection and awaiting the inevitable, it’s worth noting that Bill Gates also predicted in 2004 that the email spam problem would be “solved” in two years. That hasn’t quite panned out.

Yes, Bill Gates is insanely rich. Yes, Bill Gates is insanely smart. And yes, Bill Gates is correct that digital media will change the way we live in years to come. But will Microsoft have the foresight to lead the charge?

Now might be a good time for Bill Gates to borrow the Oracle of Omaha’s crystal ball for a few years.